a gia tang cua Kito Giao

 

a gia tang cua Kito Giao.

Roma (VietCatholic News 26-02-2015) - Cuoc ieu tra hang nam ta la "Tnh Trang Kito Giao Hoan Cau" cua International Bulletin of Missionary Research (Tap San Nghien Cu Truyen Giao Quoc Te) cung cap cho ta nhieu con so a dang: mot so kha am long, mot so kha nga long; nhng phan ln giup ta nam c ban chat giay phut hien tai trong lch s Kito Giao.

Cuoc ieu tra nam 2015 lay nam 1900 lam moc e a ra cac d phong cho nam 2050. Trong khoang 1 the ky ri nay, co nhieu tin vui ve ieu kien nhan ban khap the gii ma ta can lu y khi nh lai nhng tin buon cua the ky 20 va au the ky 21. Th du: nam 1900, 27.6 phan tram ngi trng thanh trong tong so 1.6 ty ngi tren the gii biet oc biet viet. Nam 2015, 81 phan tram ngi trng thanh trong tong so 7.3 ty ngi tren the gii biet oc biet viet, va ngi ta d oan, en nam 2050, 88 phan tram ngi trng thanh trong mot the gii gom 9.5 ty ngi se biet oc biet viet. Qua la mot thanh tu ln lao.

Trong so 7.3 ty ngi hien nay tren the gii, 89 phan tram la tn hu cac ton giao, trong khi 1.8 phan tram cho la mnh vo than va 9 phan tram khac cho la mnh bat tri (agnostics): ieu nay cho thay nhng ngi ho hoan vo than nh Richard Dawkins va bang hu ong ta khong han ang thang the...

Nam 1900, co 267 trieu ngi Cong Giao tren the gii; ngay nay, Giao Hoi hoan cau em c 1.2 ty chi the va so nay c d phong tang len 1.6 ty vao gia the ky nay. Tuy vay, vao 1 phan t cuoi cung cua the ky 20, Cong Giao b Hoi Giao chiem mat a v cong ong ton giao ln nhat hoan cau, khi dan so Hoi Giao khap the gii tang t 571 trieu ngi nam 1970 len 1.7 ty ngi hien nay.

Trong hn mot the ky qua, s gia tang ky dieu nhat trong Kito Giao dien ra tai Phi Chau: nam 1900, so Kito hu tai ay ch la 8.7 trieu ngi, ngay nay, ho la 542 trieu ngi va co le se tang ti 1.2 ty ngi vao nam 2050, luc con so Kito hu Phi Chau se bang con so Kito hu My Chau La Tinh va Au Chau gom lai. Kito Giao the ky 21 cung la mot thc tai co tnh o th hn so vi 100 nam trc ay. Nam 1900, 29 phan tram dan so Kito Giao the gii song tai cac o th; nay la 65 phan tram, mac du d phong ti nam 2050, co the giam xuong 59 phan tram. Nhng co le cac con so ang ngac nhien nhat trong cuoc ieu tra lan nay lien quan ti cac Kito hu Ngu Tuan va ac Sung. Nam 1900, ho ch la 981,000 ngi, ngay nay ho la 643,661,000 ngi; va ti nam 2050, d phong ho se len ti hn 1 ty ngi. Ch xet ve con so ma thoi, Kito Giao Ngu Tuan va ac Sung la hien tng phat trien nhanh nhat trong lch s ton giao the gii.

Ba hien tng tren, tc gia tang tai Phi Chau, o th hoa va Phai Ngu Tuan, cung gop phan giai thch s phan manh cang ngay cang ln lao hn cua the gii Kito Giao. ieu co the goi la Kito Giao t lap (entrepreneurial), tc t lap ra chnh Giao Hoi cua mnh, la thanh phan co mat ca ba hien tng nay. Chnh v the, con so cac he phai Kito Giao tang t 1,600 nam 1900, len 45,000 hien nay, va d phong se len ti 70,000 vao nam 2050.

Du co s gia tang tot ep nh tren, Kito Giao xem ra khong tien trien bao nhieu neu ke ve phan tram so vi dan so the gii. Thc vay, nam 1900, phan tram ay la 34.5; en nam 1970, xuong con 33.3, roi 32.4 nam 2000; nhng len 33.4 hien nay, va d phong se len 33.7 nam 2025 va 36 nam 2050.

Hien tng tren phan ln do s giam sut Kito Giao tai Au Chau. Tai ay, ngi ta thay phan tram gia tang ngi Kito hu hang nam c ke la thap nhat: 0.16 phan tram. Noi ve con so Kito hu so vi dan so Kito Giao the gii, th Kito Giao Au Chau giam sut ang ke hn ca: nam 1900, ho chiem 66 phan tram, hien nay, ho ch la 23 phan tram. ieu nay khien ngi ta kho chu khi cac lanh tu Kito Giao Au Chau, bat ke la Cong Giao hay The Phan, len mat "day ao" ca the gii, coi ngi khong bang mnh. Nh trng hp c HY Kasper tai Thng Hoi ong nam roi, coi thng cac ong gop cua Phi Chau.

Mot con so c George Weigel to ra ai ngai la theo d phong cua cuoc ieu tra, ch co 14 phan tram nhng ngi khong phai la Kito hu hien nay biet ti 1 ngi Kito hu. ieu nay cho thay ca s co lap gia cac nhom ton giao vi nhau lan s that bai cua viec truyen giang Tin Mng. Bi the, van con can rat nhieu th gat tren canh ong truyen giao, nhat la ni nhng ngi cha bao gi tiep xuc vi c tin.

 

Vu Van An

 


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